Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.035699 0.040758 0.046318 0.052889 0.060451 0.068891 0.079039
2024-12-22 0.027461 0.034166 0.042224 0.052653 0.065834 0.081998 0.103412
2024-12-29 0.023805 0.031389 0.041076 0.054416 0.072407 0.095963 0.129368
2025-01-05 0.019999 0.027617 0.037830 0.052612 0.073616 0.102620 0.146104
2025-01-12 0.017421 0.025029 0.035664 0.051736 0.075635 0.110205 0.164632
2025-01-19 0.015051 0.022386 0.033019 0.049709 0.075542 0.114478 0.178506
2025-01-26 0.014125 0.021710 0.033092 0.051618 0.081416 0.128143 0.208289
2025-02-02 0.013319 0.021101 0.033159 0.053456 0.087290 0.142348 0.240590
2025-02-09 0.012608 0.020546 0.033219 0.055234 0.093185 0.157138 0.275608
2025-02-16 0.011571 0.019345 0.032095 0.054887 0.095402 0.165893 0.301046
2025-02-23 0.010785 0.018475 0.031419 0.055200 0.098740 0.176865 0.331730
2025-03-02 0.009908 0.017360 0.030208 0.054422 0.099990 0.184141 0.356250
2025-03-09 0.009407 0.016877 0.030084 0.055655 0.105192 0.199512 0.398943
2025-03-16 0.008691 0.015938 0.029057 0.055104 0.106957 0.208560 0.430240
2025-03-23 0.008373 0.015703 0.029292 0.056972 0.113630 0.227966 0.485611
2025-03-30 0.007614 0.014559 0.027702 0.055077 0.112487 0.231353 0.506894
2025-04-06 0.007050 0.013737 0.026656 0.054158 0.113233 0.238703 0.537843
2025-04-13 0.006407 0.012705 0.025101 0.052031 0.111172 0.239779 0.554520
2025-04-20 0.006254 0.012645 0.025490 0.054034 0.118298 0.261800 0.623497
2025-04-27 0.006099 0.012567 0.025831 0.055963 0.125462 0.284726 0.697902
2025-05-04 0.005945 0.012475 0.026132 0.057829 0.132681 0.308609 0.778120
2025-05-11 0.005606 0.011957 0.025478 0.057465 0.134624 0.320163 0.828171
2025-05-18 0.005350 0.011599 0.025139 0.057794 0.138261 0.336250 0.892539